“There’s No Budget” — Rethinking National Spending Through Everyday Numbers

💬 “There’s no budget” — Can we really accept that?

When politicians say “there’s no budget,” are we supposed to just nod and accept it?
This article quietly reexamines the hidden structure of national budgets, with the help of AI.

🪞 What AI Can Reveal

• Understanding the scale of money
  → Translating abstract national figures into relatable, everyday terms
• Comparing priorities: $5.3B in overseas aid vs. $660M for shelter air conditioning
  → Visualizing the mismatch in spending priorities
• Timing of elections and cash handouts
  → Mapping the political logic behind financial distribution

🏛 Overview of Japan’s 2025 National Budget

• General account total: ¥115.5 trillion (~$770 billion) — record high
• Tax revenue: ¥78.4 trillion (~$520 billion) — record high, driven by corporate and consumption taxes
• New government bonds issued: ¥28.6 trillion (~$190 billion)
  → About 25% of revenue is borrowed

📉 The Role and Dependency on Government Bonds

Government bonds are issued to cover what taxes can’t.
In 2025, Japan’s new bond issuance fell below ¥30 trillion for the first time in 17 years, yet:

• Debt repayment and interest alone cost ¥28.2 trillion (~$188 billion)
• That’s 25% of total spending, just to service past debt

This is the reality inside Japan’s national wallet.
The numbers are so large, they feel abstract.
So when we’re told “there’s no budget,” we often just accept it.

But what could we actually do with that money?
Let’s ask AI.

💴 What Can Be Done With Different Budget Sizes?

To understand what’s truly possible, let’s break down the budget into everyday scales.

💴 ¥100 million (~0K) — Close to a lifetime salary

Examples (local or individual scale):

• Run a small community kitchen for 10 years
• Launch a farmers’ market or food processing hub
• Produce and distribute a documentary film
• Renovate 10 vacant homes to attract new residents
• Provide $330/month to 100 low-income households for a year

💴 ¥1 billion (~.6M) — Comparable to a small city’s annual budget

Examples (municipal or mid-scale projects):

• Support mountain farming + build logistics + launch direct-to-consumer e-commerce
• Pilot a local currency or point system for 5 years
• Build and operate a small medical or eldercare facility
• Convert school lunches to organic in one prefecture
• Fund 100 young entrepreneurs with $66K each

💴 ¥10 billion (~M) — Mid-sized city budget

Examples (prefectural or policy-level):

• Build a regional food self-sufficiency model
• Pilot basic income: $660/month for 1,000 people over 10 years
• Install air conditioning and ICT in all public elementary schools
• Improve caregiver wages: $6.6K/year for 10,000 workers
• Stockpile emergency food, water, and sanitation nationwide

💴 ¥1 trillion (~.6B) — Nationwide system redesign

Examples (national scale):

• Raise national pension: $530/year for 17 million people
• Rebuild agriculture: organic conversion, seed law revival, farmland protection
• Create 10 pilot cities for non-monetary economies
• Renovate 1 million vacant homes for relocation
• Make education free (including university) + expand scholarships

🌍 What .3B in Overseas Aid Could Do Domestically

Though just 0.07% of the national budget, $5.3B could transform lives.

🥕 Food & Agriculture

• Organic school lunch pilot across several regions
• Support 8,000 young farmers with $66K each
• Restore seed law + build public seed infrastructure
• Preserve and promote local heirloom varieties

🏥 Healthcare & Welfare

• Improve caregiver wages: $6.6K/year for 80,000 workers
• Build 160 rural clinics ($33M each) with telemedicine systems

🏫 Education & Childcare

• Make university tuition free for 100,000 students ($5.3K/year)
• Improve wages for 100,000 childcare workers ($5.3K/year)

🏘 Housing & Community

• Renovate 8,000 vacant homes for relocation ($66K each)
• Pilot local currencies and sharing economies
• Provide $330/month to 130,000 low-income households for one year

🌏 Structural Transformation

• Build 10 pilot cities for non-monetary economies
  → Local currencies, barter, shared resources, food and energy self-sufficiency
• Redesign libraries and community centers as hubs for dialogue and documentation

🧊 Emergency Shelter Infrastructure: A Matter of Priority

• Classroom AC coverage: 99.1% nationwide
• Gymnasium AC coverage: only 22.7% (as of May 2025)
  → Yet gymnasiums serve as emergency shelters during disasters

The Ministry of Education aims for 100% coverage by 2035.
But with just 1/8 of the $5.3B overseas aid, we could achieve this much sooner.
Why wait 10 years?

💸 Instant Cash vs. Long-Term Investment: Populist Spending?

🧍 Universal ¥20,000 (~0) per person

• Target: All 124 million citizens
• Cost: $16.5B)

👶 Additional ¥20,000 for children and non-taxable households

• Target: ~15 million children + ~20 million low-income households
• Cost: $4.6–6.6B)

🧮 Total Cost: –23B)

• Funded by surplus tax revenue from 2024
• Scheduled for post-election implementation

🗳️ Elections and Handouts: Vote-Buying?

The government never officially stated that the cash handouts were tied to election support.
However, the timing and structure strongly suggest populist spending.

After failing to secure a majority in the upper house, the plan stalled.
The promised handouts became bargaining chips with opposition parties.

In October, the additional ¥20,000 for children and low-income households was officially cancelled.
A promise made before the election — quietly withdrawn after.

💔 A Final Question

Why is it that $23B in cash handouts can be mobilized instantly to maintain political power,
but long-term investments in shelters, food, and education are postponed?

Why is it so hard for citizens to see this structure?

📌 Next Article Preview

We’ll explore why budget structures are so hard to see.
Why overseas aid is prioritized over disaster shelters.
Why “there’s no budget” is used — even when billions are spent to preserve the status quo.

Let’s shine a light on the unseen architecture of public finance.